NOAA's Western Lake Erie HAB Early Season Projection Bulletin 7, dated July 30, 2026, incorporated Maumee River discharge observations through July 26 and continued to predict a bloom severity of 3.5 with a range of 3 to 4.5. The bulletin states the bloom began in Maumee Bay around July 12 and has been slow to expand, similar to 2025, running about three weeks behind the 2024 progression. Cool June air kept lake temperatures low, and rapid surface heating during July's high temperatures caused stratification that left the bottom water slower than usual to warm. NOAA expects the bloom to peak in mid to late August and continue into September, with variation in size and location due to wind, and at this severity expects it to remain mostly in the western basin.